International Business Cycle Synchronization Since the 1870s: Evidence from a Novel Network Approach
18 Pages Posted: 6 Dec 2015
Date Written: October 9, 2015
In this study, we examine the issue of business cycle synchronization from a historical perspective in 27 developed and developing countries. Based on a novel complex network approach, the Threshold-Minimum Dominating Set (T-MDS), our results reveal heterogeneous patterns of international business cycle synchronization during fundamental globalization periods since the 1870s. In particular, the proposed methodology reveals that worldwide business cycles de-coupled during the Gold Standard, though they were synchronized during the Great Depression. The Bretton Woods era was associated with a lower degree of synchronization as compared to that during the Great Depression, while worldwide business cycle synchronization increased to unprecedented levels during the latest period of floating exchange rates and the Great Recession.
Keywords: Business cycle synchronization, Globalisation, Complex networks
JEL Classification: E3; E32; N10
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