International Business Cycle Synchronization Since the 1870s: Evidence from a Novel Network Approach

18 Pages Posted: 6 Dec 2015

See all articles by Nikolaos Antonakakis

Nikolaos Antonakakis

Vienna University of Economics and Business; University of Portsmouth

Periklis Gogas

Democritus University of Thrace - Department of Economics

Theophilos Papadimitriou

Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace

Georgios Sarantitis

Democritus University of Thrace - Department of Economics

Date Written: October 9, 2015

Abstract

In this study, we examine the issue of business cycle synchronization from a historical perspective in 27 developed and developing countries. Based on a novel complex network approach, the Threshold-Minimum Dominating Set (T-MDS), our results reveal heterogeneous patterns of international business cycle synchronization during fundamental globalization periods since the 1870s. In particular, the proposed methodology reveals that worldwide business cycles de-coupled during the Gold Standard, though they were synchronized during the Great Depression. The Bretton Woods era was associated with a lower degree of synchronization as compared to that during the Great Depression, while worldwide business cycle synchronization increased to unprecedented levels during the latest period of floating exchange rates and the Great Recession.

Keywords: Business cycle synchronization, Globalisation, Complex networks

JEL Classification: E3; E32; N10

Suggested Citation

Antonakakis, Nikolaos and Gogas, Periklis and Papadimitriou, Theophilos and Sarantitis, Georgios, International Business Cycle Synchronization Since the 1870s: Evidence from a Novel Network Approach (October 9, 2015). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2699197 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2699197

Nikolaos Antonakakis

Vienna University of Economics and Business ( email )

Welthandelsplatz 1
Vienna, Wien 1020
Austria

HOME PAGE: http://www.wu.ac.at/ie/en/team/nikos

University of Portsmouth ( email )

Richmond Building
Portland Street
Portsmouth, Hampshire PO1 3DE
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.port.ac.uk/economics-and-finance/staff/nikolaos-antonakakis.html

Periklis Gogas

Democritus University of Thrace - Department of Economics ( email )

Komotini, 69100
Greece

HOME PAGE: http://www.econ.duth.gr/personel/dep/gkogkas/index.en.shtml

Theophilos Papadimitriou

Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace ( email )

University Campus
Komotini, 69100
Greece

HOME PAGE: http://econ.duth.gr/author/papadimi/

Georgios Sarantitis (Contact Author)

Democritus University of Thrace - Department of Economics ( email )

Komotini
Greece

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