The Balance of Payments, Russia's External Debt and the Exchange Rate of the Ruble: A Fragile Equilibrium

Russian Economic Developments. Moscow, 2015, #11, pp. 11-13

3 Pages Posted: 10 Dec 2015

See all articles by Alexandra Bozhechkova

Alexandra Bozhechkova

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Pavel Trunin

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Michael Khromov

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Structural Research Laboratory

Date Written: December 8, 2015

Abstract

Russia’s balance of payments data for Q3 2015 show a considerable decline in her current account balance. In monetary terms, the decline in imports during Q3 was faster than that in exports (relative to Q3 2014). By comparison with Q2 2015, it even demonstrated a slight increase, notwithstanding the weakening of the ruble in July and August. In Q3, for the first time in five years, Russia saw a noteworthy capital inflow into banks and enterprises resulting from a considerable reduction in the volume of overseas assets (which were sold on a major scale in order to raise funds for looming external debt repayments) and the sale of foreign exchange by the population. On the whole, the trends observed during the period January-September 2015 make it possible to conclude that, unless any new external shocks take place, Russia’s current account balance by the end of 2015 will be large enough to guarantee the stability of the ruble’s exchange rate against major world currencies in spite of the huge external debt repayments to be made at the end of 2015.

Keywords: Russian economy, debt, exchange rate

JEL Classification: P24, E52

Suggested Citation

Bozhechkova, Alexandra and Trunin, Pavel and Khromov, Michael, The Balance of Payments, Russia's External Debt and the Exchange Rate of the Ruble: A Fragile Equilibrium (December 8, 2015). Russian Economic Developments. Moscow, 2015, #11, pp. 11-13, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2700835 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2700835

Alexandra Bozhechkova (Contact Author)

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

Gazetny pereylok 3-5
Moscow, 125993
Russia

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Pavel Trunin

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

Gazetny pereulok, 3-5
Moscow, 125993
Russia

Michael Khromov

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

3-5 Gazetny Lane
Moscow, 125009
Russia

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Structural Research Laboratory ( email )

Moscow
Russia

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