Commodity Turnover: A Delayed Fall

Abstract

In late 2014-early 2015, retail and wholesale trade, the one of the biggest sector of Russian economy , longer than others ‘put up resistance’ to the negative macroeconomic trends and showed an increase, however small, in commodity turnover. Meanwhile, in the autumn of 2015, in spite of a relative stabilization of Russian terms of trade and foreign exchange rate dynamics, commodity turnover in Russia experienced its sharpest downfall since 2000. This phenomenon is largely explained by the delayed pass-through effect of the ruble’s exchange rate fluctuations into commodity prices and by the gradual adaptation of households to new permanent income.

Keywords: Russian economy, trade turnover, pass-through effect, commodity prices

JEL Classification: F10, F13, F19