Wage Against the Machine: A Generalized Deep-Learning Market Test of Dataset Value

Abstract

How can you tell if a particular sports dataset really adds value? The method introduced in this paper provides a way for any analyst in almost any sport to determine the additional value of almost any dataset.

Applying the method to NBA betting markets with a standard dataset available publicly as well as an augmented one incorporating data from Vantage Sports, we find that a rolling deep learning model with the augmented data substantially and significantly outperforms a similar machine learning model with the standard data over the 2014-2015 season. Furthermore, the performance with the augmented data is above the betting break even probability.

Finally, the same model without modification continues to outperform in subsequent markets and games, yielding a winning probability in excess of 56 percent for bets on games from the start of the season on October 27, 2015 through December 13, 2015.