Macroeconomic Attention and the Stock Market

2017 Financial Intermediation Research Society Conference

2016 ASU Sonoran Winter Finance Conference

51 Pages Posted: 15 Dec 2015 Last revised: 6 Feb 2019

See all articles by Adlai J. Fisher

Adlai J. Fisher

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Sauder School of Business

Charles Martineau

University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management and UTSC Management

Jinfei Sheng

University of California, Irvine - Paul Merage School of Business

Date Written: October 24, 2018

Abstract

We construct indices of attention to macroeconomic risks including employment, output growth, and monetary policy. Attention rises around macroeconomic announcements and following changes in fundamentals over quarterly, annual, and business cycle horizons. The effect is asymmetric: Bad news raises attention more than good news. Further, changes in attention before unemployment and FOMC announcements predict announcement surprises, stock returns, and implied volatility changes on the announcement day. These findings are consistent with theories of endogenous attention and macroeconomic announcement risk premia.

Keywords: Attention Dynamics, Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Stock Market

JEL Classification: G12, E20

Suggested Citation

Fisher, Adlai J. and Martineau, Charles and Sheng, Jinfei, Macroeconomic Attention and the Stock Market (October 24, 2018). 2017 Financial Intermediation Research Society Conference; 2016 ASU Sonoran Winter Finance Conference. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2703978 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2703978

Adlai J. Fisher (Contact Author)

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Sauder School of Business ( email )

2053 Main Mall
Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2
Canada
604-822-8331 (Phone)
604-822-4695 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://finance.sauder.ubc.ca/~fisher

Charles Martineau

University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management and UTSC Management ( email )

105 St-George
Toronto, Ontario M5S3E6
Canada

HOME PAGE: http://charlesmartineau.com

Jinfei Sheng

University of California, Irvine - Paul Merage School of Business ( email )

4291 Pereira Dr
Irvine, CA 92697
United States

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/site/shengjinfei/

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