Globalization and its (Dis-)Content: Trade Shocks and Voting Behavior

54 Pages Posted: 21 Dec 2015 Last revised: 6 Feb 2025

See all articles by Christian Dippel

Christian Dippel

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Anderson School of Management

Robert Gold

Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Stephan Heblich

Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy and Dept. of Economics,

Date Written: December 2015

Abstract

We identify the causal effect of trade-integration with China and Eastern Europe on voting in Germany from 1987 to 2009. Looking at the entire political spectrum, we find that only extreme-right parties respond significantly to trade integration. Their vote share increases with import competition and decreases with export access opportunities. We unpack mechanisms using reduced form evidence and a causal mediation analysis. Two-thirds of the total effect of trade integration on voting appears to be driven by observable labor market adjustments, primarily changes in manufacturing employment. These results are mirrored in an individual-level analysis in the German Socioeconomic Panel.

Suggested Citation

Dippel, Christian and Gold, Robert and Heblich, Stephan, Globalization and its (Dis-)Content: Trade Shocks and Voting Behavior (December 2015). NBER Working Paper No. w21812, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2706313

Christian Dippel (Contact Author)

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Anderson School of Management ( email )

110 Westwood Plaza
Los Angeles, CA 90095-1481
United States

Robert Gold

Kiel Institute for the World Economy ( email )

P.O. Box 4309
Kiel, Schleswig-Hosltein D-24100
Germany

Stephan Heblich

Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy and Dept. of Economics, ( email )

105 St George Street
Toronto, Ontario M5S 3G8
Canada

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