Meta-Analysis of Energy Scenario Studies: Example of Electricity Scenarios for Switzerland

39 Pages Posted: 23 Dec 2015

See all articles by Martin Densing

Martin Densing

Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) - Energy Economics Group

Evangelos Panos

Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) - Energy Economics Group

Stefan Hirschberg

Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI)

Date Written: December 21, 2015

Abstract

We present a meta-analysis of long-term energy-system scenario studies. The meta-analysis comprises a qualitative taxonomy of modeling approaches and a quantitative decomposition of scenario results across heterogenous studies. The analysis is exemplified by technology-detailed scenario studies of the Swiss electricity system. In the decomposition approach, we assess the variability across scenario results by a principal component analysis, which provides a low-dimensional approximation of multidimensional data. Additionally, by means of a distance measure, the extremality of a scenario result is evaluated, and a minimal set of representative scenarios is determined with respect to a considered scenario result. The proposed methods contribute to the analysis of commonality of modeling approaches and of multidimensional results across heterogenous scenario studies.

Keywords: Meta-analysis, Principal component analysis, Energy system models, Distance measure, Swiss electricity system

JEL Classification: C44, O21, P50, Q42, Q48

Suggested Citation

Densing, Martin and Panos, Evangelos and Hirschberg, Stefan, Meta-Analysis of Energy Scenario Studies: Example of Electricity Scenarios for Switzerland (December 21, 2015). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2706579 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2706579

Martin Densing (Contact Author)

Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) - Energy Economics Group ( email )

5232 Villigen PSI
Switzerland

Evangelos Panos

Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) - Energy Economics Group ( email )

5232 Villigen PSI
Switzerland

Stefan Hirschberg

Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) ( email )

5232 Villigen PSI
Switzerland

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