An Inquiry into the Nature, Causes and Impacts of Contraband Cigarettes

Abstract

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is contemplating a ban on menthol-flavored cigarettes. Prior to reaching a preliminary decision, the agency and their independent science advisory panel are required to consider the “countervailing” effects a ban would have on smokers and non-smokers, including the creation of significant demand for contraband cigarettes. This monograph addresses the potential negative effects of a menthol ban by analyzing three facets of the contraband cigarette issue: 1) the nature of contraband cigarettes including consideration of how they may materially differ from legal products, such as by containing higher levels of heavy metals and other contaminants; 2) factors influencing the size of the contraband market and an estimation of how it would respond to a menthol ban; and 3) a discussion of the impacts of contraband cigarettes on society. Academic literature, findings by US government and foreign government agencies, and accounts from major media publications serve as the databases for the analyses. The monograph concludes that a ban on menthol-flavored cigarettes would significantly inflate the market for contraband cigarettes, many of which present even higher health risks than legally-made products. The increased health hazards from illicit cigarettes disproportionately impact underage and African American smokers.

Keywords: tobacco, cigarettes, illicit, contraband, counterfeit, smuggled, organized crime, FDA. regulation, regulatory policies