Modeling the Effects of Grade Retention in High School

40 Pages Posted: 26 Dec 2015

See all articles by Stijn Baert

Stijn Baert

Ghent University; University of Antwerp; Catholic University of Louvain (UCL); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Bart Cockx

Ghent University - Sherppa - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration; IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Matteo Picchio

Marche Polytechnic University - Department of Economic and Social Science; IZA Institute of Labor Economics; SHERPPA - Ghent University

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Abstract

A dynamic discrete choice model is set up to estimate the effects of grade retention in high school, both in the short- (end-of-year evaluation) and long-run (drop-out and delay). In contrast to regression discontinuity designs, this approach captures treatment heterogeneity and controls for grade-varying unobservable determinants. A method is proposed to deal with initial conditions and with partial observability of the track choices at the start of high school. Forced track downgrading is considered as an alternative remedial measure. In the long-run, grade retention and its alternative have adverse effects on schooling outcomes and, more so, for less able pupils.

Keywords: education, grade retention, track mobility, dynamic discrete choice models, heterogeneous treatment effects

JEL Classification: C33, C35, I21

Suggested Citation

Baert, Stijn and Cockx, Bart L. W. and Picchio, Matteo, Modeling the Effects of Grade Retention in High School. IZA Discussion Paper No. 9556. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2708369

Stijn Baert (Contact Author)

Ghent University ( email )

University of Antwerp ( email )

Prinsstraat 13
Antwerp, Antwerp 2000
Belgium

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.uantwerpen.be/nl/personeel/stijn-baert/

Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) ( email )

Place Montesquieu, 3
Louvain-la-Neuve, 1348
Belgium

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.uclouvain.be/en-309318.html

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.iza.org/en/webcontent/personnel/photos/index_html?key=6832

Bart L. W. Cockx

Ghent University - Sherppa - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration ( email )

Ghent, B-9000
Belgium

IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain

Place Montesquieu, 3
Louvain-la-Neuve
Belgium

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Matteo Picchio

Marche Polytechnic University - Department of Economic and Social Science ( email )

Piazzale Martelli, 8
60121 Ancona
Italy
+39 071 220 7176 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.univpm.it/matteo.picchio

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

SHERPPA - Ghent University ( email )

Tweekerkenstraat 2
Ghent, B-9000
Belgium

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