Forecasting Tourist Arrivals to Turkey
11 Pages Posted: 30 Dec 2015
Date Written: December 28, 2015
Two different models are developed to forecast the total tourist arrivals to Turkey using monthly data for the period 2002-2013. The results of the study show that two models provide accurate predictions but the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model produces more accurate short-term forecasts than the structural time series model.
Keywords: structural time series models, arima, tourist arrivals, tourist demand, Turkey
JEL Classification: L83, C53
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation