Forecasting Tourist Arrivals to Turkey

11 Pages Posted: 30 Dec 2015

See all articles by Engin Yilmaz

Engin Yilmaz

Turkish Tax Inspection Board

Date Written: December 28, 2015


Two different models are developed to forecast the total tourist arrivals to Turkey using monthly data for the period 2002-2013. The results of the study show that two models provide accurate predictions but the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model produces more accurate short-term forecasts than the structural time series model.

Keywords: structural time series models, arima, tourist arrivals, tourist demand, Turkey

JEL Classification: L83, C53

Suggested Citation

Yilmaz, Engin, Forecasting Tourist Arrivals to Turkey (December 28, 2015). Tourism: An International Interdisciplinary Journal, 2015. Available at SSRN:

Engin Yilmaz (Contact Author)

Turkish Tax Inspection Board ( email )

Cukur Ambar Mh
Ankara, Ankara 06100
903122535151 (Phone)

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