Prewar and Postwar Macroeconomic Uncertainty: An International Perspective

Posted: 27 Sep 2001

See all articles by Susan Pozo

Susan Pozo

Western Michigan University - Department of Economics

Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes

San Diego State University - Department of Economics; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Abstract

Time series on U.S. international macroeconomic variables from the prewar period are compared to postwar data to explore whether the uncertainty experienced by economic agents differs over the two historical time periods. Conditional time series measures of uncertainty reveal that shocks to the time series appear to raise the level of uncertainty more dramatically in the postwar period, but the series exhibit more persistence in volatility in the prewar period. We conclude that the nature of uncertainty differs in the prewar and postwar periods and that these differences are likely to have implications for the behavior of economic agents.

Suggested Citation

Pozo, Susan and Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina, Prewar and Postwar Macroeconomic Uncertainty: An International Perspective. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 23, No. 4, Fall 2001. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=271079

Susan Pozo (Contact Author)

Western Michigan University - Department of Economics ( email )

1903 West Michigan Avenue
Kalamazoo, MI 49008
United States
269-387-5553 (Phone)
269-387-5637 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://homepages.wmich.edu/~pozo/

Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes

San Diego State University - Department of Economics ( email )

5500 Campanile Drive
San Diego, CA 92182
United States
619-594-1663 (Phone)
619-594-5062 (Fax)

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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