Lager Veiplanleggere Ærligere Prognoser Enn Jernbaneplanleggere? (Do Road Planners Produce More 'Honest Numbers' than Rail Planners?)

Plan 3-4, 2006

6 Pages Posted: 11 Jan 2016

See all articles by Bent Flyvbjerg

Bent Flyvbjerg

University of Oxford - Said Business School

Date Written: 2006

Abstract

Norwegian Abstract: I forbindelse med store transportinfrastrukturprosjekter viser det seg ofte å være store avvik mellom forventet og faktisk trafikkvolum. En menneskelig tendens til ønsketenkning kan være én årsak til de mange overdrevent positive trafikkprognosene. Og overoptimismen synes å være særlig stor når prognosene lages av initiativtakerne til et prosjekt. Men er det noen forskjell på veiplanleggere og jernbaneplanleggere i så måte?

English Abstract: This paper investigates the hypothesis that traffic forecasts for roads in Europe are geographically biased with underestimated traffic volumes in metropolitan areas and overestimated traffic volumes in remote regions. Our data do not support this hypothesis. Since previous studies have shown a strong tendency to overestimated forecasts of the number of passengers on new rail projects, one might speculate that road planners are more skilful and/or honest than rail planners. However, during the period when the investigated projects were planned, strong incentives did not exist for road planners to make biased forecasts in order to place their projects in a more flattering light.

Note: Downloadable document is in Norwegian.

Suggested Citation

Flyvbjerg, Bent, Lager Veiplanleggere Ærligere Prognoser Enn Jernbaneplanleggere? (Do Road Planners Produce More 'Honest Numbers' than Rail Planners?) (2006). Plan 3-4, 2006. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2712874

Bent Flyvbjerg (Contact Author)

University of Oxford - Said Business School ( email )

Park End Street
Oxford, OX1 1HP
Great Britain

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