An Econometric Analysis of the Influence of the Advocate General on the Court of Justice of the European Union

Cambridge Journal of Comparative and International Law, Vol. 5, No. 1, Forthcoming

University of Cambridge Faculty of Law Research Paper No. 3/2016

79 Pages Posted: 12 Jan 2016 Last revised: 14 Jan 2016

See all articles by Carlos Arrebola

Carlos Arrebola

University of Cambridge - Faculty of Law

Ana Julia Mauricio

University of Cambridge - The Faculty of Law

Héctor Jiménez Portilla

Overseas Development Institute (ODI)

Date Written: January 12, 2016

Abstract

This article contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the role of the Advocate General in the makeup of the Court of Justice of the European Union. The article measures the influence of the Advocate General on the judgments of the Court of Justice through an econometric study using a probit model with data from annulment procedures of the last twenty years (1994-2014). Despite the acknowledged limitations in establishing the influence of the Advocate General on the case law of the Court of Justice via a quantitative analysis, the regression models used in this article give a statistically significant measure of such influence, improving previous attempts in the literature. The findings suggest that the Court of Justice is approximately 67 percent more likely to annul an act (or part of it) if the Advocate General advises the Court to annul than if it advises the Court to dismiss the case or declare it inadmissible. These results raise several questions as regards judicial independence and the relevance of the figure of the Advocate General, providing a grounded basis for future discussions and judicial reform.

Keywords: European Union, Court of Justice of the European Union, Advocate General, Influence, Econometrics

JEL Classification: K00, K33, K4, C5

Suggested Citation

Arrebola, Carlos and Mauricio, Ana Julia and Jiménez Portilla, Héctor, An Econometric Analysis of the Influence of the Advocate General on the Court of Justice of the European Union (January 12, 2016). Cambridge Journal of Comparative and International Law, Vol. 5, No. 1, Forthcoming; University of Cambridge Faculty of Law Research Paper No. 3/2016. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2714259

Carlos Arrebola (Contact Author)

University of Cambridge - Faculty of Law ( email )

10 West Road
Cambridge, CB3 9DZ
United Kingdom

Ana Julia Mauricio

University of Cambridge - The Faculty of Law ( email )

10 West Road
Cambridge, CB3 9DZ
United Kingdom

Héctor Jiménez Portilla

Overseas Development Institute (ODI) ( email )

111 Westminister Bridge Rd.
London, SE17JD
United Kingdom

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