Abstract

https://ssrn.com/abstract=271482
 
 

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Analyst Forecasts and the Rationality of Information Flows: Evidence from the Bloomberg G-7 Country Surveys


Lorne N. Switzer


Concordia University, Quebec - Department of Finance

Emmanuel A. Noel


Concordia University, Quebec - Department of Finance

January 2001

EFMA 2001 Lugano Meetings

Abstract:     
Market participants expend considerable resources on analyst services to improve their decision-making processes. One of the more widely used sources of market information is that of Bloomberg, which derives market expectations from reputed experts on macroeconomic forecasts across several countries. Previous work that has studied the performance of macroeconomic survey forecasts has focused primarily on the United States. This study is the first that we are aware of that investigates survey forecasts outside the U.S.A. This study aims to test the rationality of Bloomberg's surveyed experts' median opinions for major macroeconomic announcements in the U.S.A., Japan, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy. While most non-U.S. forecasts appear consistent with rationality, the evidence for the U.S. is somewhat mixed for the entire sample period. However over the latter part of the sample, forecast accuracy for the U.S. analysts appears to have improved significantly and compares favorably with forecasts produced by the Bloomberg analysts for the other G7 countries.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 63


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Date posted: May 28, 2001  

Suggested Citation

Switzer, Lorne N. and Noel, Emmanuel A., Analyst Forecasts and the Rationality of Information Flows: Evidence from the Bloomberg G-7 Country Surveys (January 2001). EFMA 2001 Lugano Meetings. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=271482 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.271482

Contact Information

Lorne N. Switzer (Contact Author)
Concordia University, Quebec - Department of Finance ( email )
John Molson School of Business
Montreal, Quebec H3G1M8
Canada
514-848-2424, x2960 (Phone)
514-848-4500 (Fax)
Emmanuel A. Noel
Concordia University, Quebec - Department of Finance
John Molson School of Business
Montreal, Quebec, H3G 1M8
Canada
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