The Migration Response to Increasing Temperatures

56 Pages Posted: 15 Jan 2016

See all articles by Cristina Cattaneo

Cristina Cattaneo

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Giovanni Peri

University of California, Davis - Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 23, 2015

Abstract

Climate change, especially the warming trend experienced by several countries, could affect agricultural productivity. As a consequence, rural incomes will change, and with them the incentives for people to remain in rural areas. Using data from 116 countries between 1960 and 2000, we analyze the effect of differential warming trends across countries on the probability of either migrating out of the country or from rural to urban areas. We find that higher temperatures increased migration rates to urban areas and other countries in middle income economies. In poor countries, higher temperatures reduced the probability of migration to cities or to other countries, consistent with the presence of severe liquidity constraints. In middle-income countries, migration represents an important margin of adjustment to global warming, potentially contributing to structural change and even increasing income per worker. Such a mechanism, however, does not seem to work in poor economies.

Keywords: Global Warming, Emigration, Rural-Urban Migration, Agricultural Productivity

JEL Classification: F22, Q54, O13

Suggested Citation

Cattaneo, Cristina and Peri, Giovanni, The Migration Response to Increasing Temperatures (September 23, 2015). FEEM Working Paper No. 87.2015. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2715985 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2715985

Cristina Cattaneo (Contact Author)

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Giovanni Peri

University of California, Davis - Department of Economics ( email )

One Shields Drive
Davis, CA 95616-8578
United States
530-752-3033 (Phone)
530-752-9382 (Fax)

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
30
Abstract Views
336
PlumX Metrics