Belief Elicitation: A Horse Race Among Truth Serums

20 Pages Posted: 19 Jan 2016

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 2015

Abstract

We pit non‐incentivised introspection against five revealed preference mechanisms (‘truth serums’) in the elicitation of beliefs in a simple two‐player game. We measure the additivity, the predictive power for own behaviour and the accuracy of each method. Beliefs from incentivised methods are better predictors of participants' own behaviour compared to introspection. However, introspection performs equally well as the truth serums in terms of accuracy and additivity. We also find that correction for risk aversion improves the additivity of scoring rule belief reports.

Suggested Citation

Trautmann, Stefan and van de Kuilen, Gijs, Belief Elicitation: A Horse Race Among Truth Serums (December 2015). The Economic Journal, Vol. 125, Issue 589, pp. 2116-2135, 2015. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2716747 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12160

Stefan Trautmann (Contact Author)

Tilburg University ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, DC Noord-Brabant 5000 LE
Netherlands

Gijs Van de Kuilen

Tilburg University ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, DC Noord-Brabant 5000 LE
Netherlands

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