Stock Market's Response to Real Output Shocks: Connection Restored But Delayed
10 Pages Posted: 19 Jan 2016
Date Written: December 2015
We propose a vector autoregression with asymmetric leads model to combine the forward‐looking, contemporaneous, and delayed responses of the stock market to output news. Using this approach, we document that the stock market's connection to real output, shown by Binswanger to have been broken since the early 1980s, has been restored after 1998, however, via a delayed response. Subperiods mainly differ in terms of delayed response, portraying an interesting evolution of market participants' response to macroeconomic information based on the realized persistence of output shocks.
JEL Classification: G14, E32
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation