Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan

53 Pages Posted: 20 Jan 2016 Last revised: 5 Oct 2022

See all articles by Brian Chen

Brian Chen

University of South Carolina

Hawre Jalal

University of Pittsburgh - Department of Health Policy and Management

Hideki Hashimoto

University of Tokyo - Graduate School of Medicine

Sze-Chuan Suen

Stanford University; University of Southern California - Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics

Karen Eggleston

Stanford University - Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC)

Michael Hurley

Stanford University - School of Medicine

Lena Schoemaker

Stanford University - Department of Health Research and Policy

Jay Bhattacharya

Stanford University - Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: January 2016

Abstract

Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan’s future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study adapts to the Japanese population the Future Elderly Model (FEM), a demographic and economic state-transition microsimulation model that projects the health conditions and functional status of Japan’s elderly population in order to estimate disability, health, and need for long term care. Our FEM simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan’s elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific disability (or future compression of morbidity among middle-aged Japanese) may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly.

Suggested Citation

Chen, Brian and Jalal, Hawre and Hashimoto, Hideki and Suen, Sze-Chuan and Eggleston, Karen and Hurley, Michael and Schoemaker, Lena and Bhattacharya, Jayanta, Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan (January 2016). NBER Working Paper No. w21870, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2717279

Brian Chen (Contact Author)

University of South Carolina ( email )

701 Main Street
Columbia, SC 29208
United States

Hawre Jalal

University of Pittsburgh - Department of Health Policy and Management ( email )

United States

Hideki Hashimoto

University of Tokyo - Graduate School of Medicine ( email )

Hongo 7-3-1
Bunkyo-ku
Tokyo, 1130033
Japan
81358413512 (Phone)
81358413512 (Fax)

Sze-Chuan Suen

Stanford University ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

University of Southern California - Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics ( email )

635 Downey Way
Los Angeles, CA 90089-3333
United States

Karen Eggleston

Stanford University - Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

Michael Hurley

Stanford University - School of Medicine ( email )

291 Campus Drive
Li Ka Shing Building
Stanford, CA 94305-5101
United States

Lena Schoemaker

Stanford University - Department of Health Research and Policy ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

Jayanta Bhattacharya

Stanford University - Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research ( email )

Center for Health Policy
179 Encina Commons
Stanford, CA 94305-6019
United States
650-736-0404 (Phone)
650-723-1919 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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