Regional Low-Emission Pathways from Global Models

56 Pages Posted: 2 Mar 2016 Last revised: 8 Mar 2016

See all articles by Heleen Van Soest

Heleen Van Soest

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Lara Reis

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Detlef P. van Vuuren

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Bilthoven)

Christoph Bertram

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

Laurent Drouet

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Jessica Jewell

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Elmar Kriegler

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

Gunnar Luderer

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

Keywan Riahi

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Joeri Rogelj

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Massimo Tavoni

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM); Princeton University - Princeton Environmental Institute

Michel Den Elzen

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Bilthoven)

Aayushi Awasthy

TERI

Katherine Calvin

Joint Global Change Research Institute

Pantelis Capros

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - School of Electrical and Computer Engineering

Leon Clarke

Government of the United States of America - Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Michel Colombier

Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations

Teng Fei

Tsinghua University

Amit Garg

Indian Institute of Management (IIM), Ahmedabad

Fernanda Guedes

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Engineering (COPPE)

Mariana Imperio

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Engineering (COPPE)

Mikiko Kainuma

National Institute for Environmental Studies

Kejun Jiang

Energy Research Institute of NDRC (ERI)

Alex Koberle

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Engineering (COPPE)

Peter Kolp

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Volker Krey

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Alban Kitous

Joint Research Center of the European Commission

Leonidas Paroussos

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - School of Electrical and Computer Engineering

Andre Lucena

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Engineering (COPPE)

Toshihiko Masui

National Institute for Environmental Studies

Larissa Nogueira

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Engineering (COPPE)

Roberta Pierfederici

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

Bert Saveyn

Catholic University of Leuven (KUL)

Roberto Schaeffer

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)

Sha Fu

National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation (NCSC)

Bianka Shoai

RITE: Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth

Thomas A. Spencer

Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations

P.R. Shukla

Indian Institute of Management (IIM), Ahmedabad

Alexandre Szklo

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Engineering (COPPE)

Henri Waisman

Centre International de Recherche sur l’ l'Environnement et le Développement

Date Written: January 19, 2016

Abstract

Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2°C with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions and related energy system changes in various countries in pathways consistent with the 2°C target. We synthesize and provide an overview of the national and regional information contained in different scenarios from various global models published over the last few years, as well as yet unpublished scenarios submitted by modelling teams participating in the MILES project (Modelling and Informing Low-Emission Strategies). We find that emissions in the mitigation scenarios are significantly reduced in all regions compared to the baseline without climate policies. The regional cumulative CO2 emissions show on average a 76% reduction between the baseline and 450 scenario. The 450 scenarios show a reduction of primary energy demand in all countries of roughly 30-40% compared to the baseline. In the baseline scenario, the contribution of low-carbon energy technology remains around 15%, i.e. similar as today. In the mitigation scenario, these numbers are scaled up rapidly towards 2050. Looking at air quality, sulphur dioxide and black carbon emissions are strongly reduced as a co-benefit of greenhouse gas emission reductions, in both developing and developed countries. However, black carbon emissions increase in countries that strongly rely on bioenergy to reach mitigation targets. Concerning energy security, energy importing countries generally experience a decrease in net-energy imports in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline development, while energy exporters experience a loss of energy export revenues.

Keywords: Climate policy, Mitigation, Global and national policy comparison

JEL Classification: Q54

Suggested Citation

Van Soest, Heleen and Reis, Lara and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Bertram, Christoph and Drouet, Laurent and Jewell, Jessica and Kriegler, Elmar and Luderer, Gunnar and Riahi, Keywan and Rogelj, Joeri and Tavoni, Massimo and Elzen, Michel Den and Awasthy, Aayushi and Calvin, Katherine and Capros, Pantelis and Clarke, Leon and Colombier, Michel and Fei, Teng and Garg, Amit and Guedes, Fernanda and Imperio, Mariana and Kainuma, Mikiko and Jiang, Kejun and Koberle, Alex and Kolp, Peter and Krey, Volker and Kitous, Alban and Paroussos, Leonidas and Lucena, Andre and Masui, Toshihiko and Nogueira, Larissa and Pierfederici, Roberta and Saveyn, Bert and Schaeffer, Roberto and Fu, Sha and Shoai, Bianka and Spencer, Thomas A. and Shukla, Pryadarshi R. and Szklo, Alexandre and Waisman, Henri, Regional Low-Emission Pathways from Global Models (January 19, 2016). FEEM Working Paper No. 110.2015. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2718125 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2718125

Heleen Van Soest (Contact Author)

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ( email )

PO box 303
Bilthoven, 3720
Netherlands

Lara Reis

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy

Detlef P. Van Vuuren

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Bilthoven)

Antonie van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9
Bilthoven, 3721 MA
Netherlands

Christoph Bertram

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) ( email )

Telegraphenberg
Potsdam, Brandenburg 14412
Germany

Laurent Drouet

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy

Jessica Jewell

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Elmar Kriegler

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) ( email )

Telegraphenberg
Potsdam, Brandenburg 14412
Germany

Gunnar Luderer

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) ( email )

Telegraphenberg
Potsdam, Brandenburg 14412
Germany

Keywan Riahi

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Joeri Rogelj

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Massimo Tavoni

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

Corso Magenta 63
20123 Milan
Italy

Princeton University - Princeton Environmental Institute

22 Chambers Street
Princeton, NJ 08544-0708
United States

Michel Den Elzen

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Bilthoven) ( email )

Antonie van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9
Bilthoven, 3721 MA
Netherlands

Aayushi Awasthy

TERI ( email )

Darbari Seth Block, IHC Complex
Lodhi Road
New Delhi, 110 003
India

Katherine Calvin

Joint Global Change Research Institute ( email )

5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500
College Park, MD 20740
United States

Pantelis Capros

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - School of Electrical and Computer Engineering ( email )

Athens
Greece

Leon Clarke

Government of the United States of America - Pacific Northwest National Laboratory ( email )

901 D Street
370 L'Enfant Promenade, S.W.
Washington, DC 20024-2115
United States

Michel Colombier

Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations ( email )

27 Rue Saint-Guillaume
Paris, 75337
France

Teng Fei

Tsinghua University ( email )

Beijing, 100084
China

Amit Garg

Indian Institute of Management (IIM), Ahmedabad ( email )

Vastrapur
Ahmedabad, Gujarat 380 015
India

Fernanda Guedes

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Engineering (COPPE)

Rua 36 n. 355
Rio de Janeiro, 21949-900
Brazil

Mariana Imperio

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Engineering (COPPE)

Rua 36 n. 355
Rio de Janeiro, 21949-900
Brazil

Mikiko Kainuma

National Institute for Environmental Studies ( email )

16-2 Onogawa
Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506
Japan

Kejun Jiang

Energy Research Institute of NDRC (ERI) ( email )

China

Alex Koberle

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Engineering (COPPE) ( email )

Rua 36 n. 355
Rio de Janeiro, 21949-900
Brazil

Peter Kolp

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Volker Krey

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Alban Kitous

Joint Research Center of the European Commission ( email )

Via E. Fermi 2749
Brussels, B-1049
Belgium

Leonidas Paroussos

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - School of Electrical and Computer Engineering ( email )

Athens
Greece

Andre Lucena

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Engineering (COPPE)

Rua 36 n. 355
Rio de Janeiro, 21949-900
Brazil

Toshihiko Masui

National Institute for Environmental Studies ( email )

16-2 Onogawa
Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506
Japan

Larissa Nogueira

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Engineering (COPPE)

Rua 36 n. 355
Rio de Janeiro, 21949-900
Brazil

Roberta Pierfederici

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change ( email )

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy

Bert Saveyn

Catholic University of Leuven (KUL) ( email )

Oude Markt 13
Leuven, Vlaams-Brabant
Belgium

Roberto Schaeffer

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) ( email )

Av; Pasteur, 250
terreo - Bairro Maracana
Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro 23890000
Brazil

Sha Fu

National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation (NCSC) ( email )

Beijing, 100038
China

Bianka Shoai

RITE: Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth ( email )

Kyoto, 619-0292
Japan

Thomas A. Spencer

Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations ( email )

27 Rue Saint-Guillaume
Paris, 75337
France

Pryadarshi R. Shukla

Indian Institute of Management (IIM), Ahmedabad ( email )

Vastrapur
Public Systems Group
Ahmedabad 380015, Gujarat
India
91 79 6307241 (Phone)
91 79 6306896 (Fax)

Alexandre Szklo

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Engineering (COPPE)

Rua 36 n. 355
Rio de Janeiro, 21949-900
Brazil

Henri Waisman

Centre International de Recherche sur l’ l'Environnement et le Développement ( email )

Campus du Jardin Tropical
45 bis avenue de la Belle Gabrielle
F94736 Nogent sur Marne Cedex
France

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