Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices
28 Pages Posted: 22 Jan 2016 Last revised: 25 Jan 2016
Date Written: January 22, 2016
This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Russian economic cycle from the early 1980s to mid-2015. To detect peaks and troughs, we tested nine monthly indices as reference series, three methods of seasonal adjustments (X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, and CAMPLET), and four methods for dating cyclical turning points (local min/max, Bry-Boschan, Harding-Pagan, and Markov-Switching model). As these more or less formal methods led to different estimates, any sensible choice was possible only on the grounds of informal considerations. The final set of turning points looks plausible and separates expansions and contractions in an explicable manner, but further discussions are needed to establish a consensus between experts.
Keywords: Economic Cycle, Turning Points, Recession, Russia
JEL Classification: E32
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation