Intermediary Asset Pricing: New Evidence from Many Asset Classes

69 Pages Posted: 25 Jan 2016 Last revised: 3 Feb 2016

See all articles by Zhiguo He

Zhiguo He

University of Chicago - Finance

Bryan T. Kelly

Yale SOM; AQR Capital Management, LLC; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Asaf Manela

Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School

Date Written: January 2016

Abstract

We find that shocks to the equity capital ratio of financial intermediaries—Primary Dealer counterparties of the New York Federal Reserve—possess significant explanatory power for crosssectional variation in expected returns. This is true not only for commonly studied equity and government bond market portfolios, but also for other more sophisticated asset classes such as corporate and sovereign bonds, derivatives, commodities, and currencies. Our intermediary capital risk factor is strongly pro-cyclical, implying counter-cyclical intermediary leverage. The price of risk for intermediary capital shocks is consistently positive and of similar magnitude when estimated separately for individual asset classes, suggesting that financial intermediaries are marginal investors in many markets and hence key to understanding asset prices.

Suggested Citation

He, Zhiguo and Kelly, Bryan T. and Manela, Asaf, Intermediary Asset Pricing: New Evidence from Many Asset Classes (January 2016). NBER Working Paper No. w21920. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2721783

Zhiguo He (Contact Author)

University of Chicago - Finance ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.zhiguohe.com

Bryan T. Kelly

Yale SOM ( email )

135 Prospect Street
P.O. Box 208200
New Haven, CT 06520-8200
United States

AQR Capital Management, LLC ( email )

Greenwich, CT
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Asaf Manela

Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School ( email )

One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1133
St. Louis, MO 63130-4899
United States
314-935-9178 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/manela

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