The Role of the Temporary Component in Spot Prices in the Revision of Expected Future Spot Prices: Evidence from Index Futures Quotes

The Journal of Futures Markets, Vol. 32, No. 3, 230–251 (2012)

Posted: 28 Jan 2016

See all articles by Hyung Cheol Kang

Hyung Cheol Kang

University of Seoul, College of Business Administration

Dong Wook Lee

Korea University

Eun Jung Lee

Hanyang University

Kyung Suh Park

Korea University - Department of Finance

Date Written: March 2012

Abstract

It is frequently argued that foreign investors have extrapolative expectations due to their informational disadvantages. That is, absent other sources of information, foreigners revise their expectations on the future price of a domestic stock more in line with its current price change than do domestic investors. In this paper, we analytically show that foreigners might respond more to a price change because they pay relatively less attention to a temporary component in price -- i.e., because they are more well-informed. We confirm this hypothesis with a simple yet powerful test that is designed by the identification schemes arising directly from the nature of a temporary component and by the access to a direct measure of the investor's expectation, namely, the quote for futures contracts. After controlling for the temporary component effect and using the lead-lag relationship between the spot and futures markets, we show that foreign investors are indeed most well-informed, whereas domestic individuals are at the other end with the most extrapolative expectations. Finally, domestic institutions are largely indistinguishable from foreigners but are noticeably different from domestic individuals.

Keywords: Foreign investors, Temporary component, Extrapolative expectations, Index futures

JEL Classification: F30, G11, G15

Suggested Citation

Kang, Hyung Cheol and Lee, Dong Wook and Lee, Eun Jung and Park, Kyung Suh, The Role of the Temporary Component in Spot Prices in the Revision of Expected Future Spot Prices: Evidence from Index Futures Quotes (March 2012). The Journal of Futures Markets, Vol. 32, No. 3, 230–251 (2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2721919

Hyung Cheol Kang

University of Seoul, College of Business Administration ( email )

163 Seoulsiripdae-ro, Dondaemun-gu
Seoul, 130-743
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Dong Wook Lee (Contact Author)

Korea University ( email )

1 Anam-dong 5 ka
Seoul, 136-701
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)
+82.2.3290.2820 (Phone)
+82.2.3290.1307 (Fax)

Eun Jung Lee

Hanyang University ( email )

505 KyoungSang Kwan, 55 Hanyangdaehak-ro,
Sangrok, Ansan, Kyeonggi-do
15588
82-31-400-5645 (Phone)

Kyung Suh Park

Korea University - Department of Finance ( email )

Seoul, 136-701
United States

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