Consumption Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving

42 Pages Posted: 27 Jan 2016

See all articles by Dimitris Christelis

Dimitris Christelis

Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples Federico II; Center for Financial Studies (CFS); ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR); Netspar

Dimitris Georgarakos

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research; Center for Financial Studies (CFS)

Tullio Jappelli

University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI); Center for Studies in Economics and Finance - CSEF

Maarten van Rooij

De Nederlandsche Bank; Netspar

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 26, 2016

Abstract

Using survey data from a representative sample of Dutch households, we estimate the strength of the precautionary saving motive by eliciting subjective expectations on future consumption. We find that expected consumption risk is higher for the young and the self-employed, and is correlated positively with income risk. We insert these subjective expectations (rather than consumption realizations, as in the existing literature) in an Euler equation for consumption, and estimate the degree of prudence by associating expected consumption risk with expected consumption growth. Robust OLS and IV estimates both indicate a coefficient of relative prudence of around 2.

Keywords: Consumption Risk, Euler Equation, Prudence, Precautionary Saving, Subjective Expectations

JEL Classification: D12, D14, D81, E03, E21, C14

Suggested Citation

Christelis, Dimitris and Georgarakos, Dimitris and Jappelli, Tullio and van Rooij, Maarten, Consumption Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving (January 26, 2016). De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 496. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2723056 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2723056

Dimitris Christelis (Contact Author)

Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples Federico II ( email )

Via Cintia, Monte S. Angelo
Naples, NA 80126
Italy

Center for Financial Studies (CFS) ( email )

Gr├╝neburgplatz 1
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR) ( email )

Australian School of Business
Ground Floor, East Wing UNSW Kensington Campus
Sydney, New South Wales NSW 2052
Australia
+61 (2) 9931 9202 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.cepar.edu.au

Netspar ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

Dimitris Georgarakos

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 20
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Center for Financial Studies (CFS) ( email )

Gr├╝neburgplatz 1
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

Tullio Jappelli

University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economics ( email )

Via Cintia - Monte S. Angelo
Napoli, 80126
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.csef.it/people/jappelli.htm

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.cepr.org/researchers/details/rschcontact.asp?IDENT=106354

European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

c/o ECARES ULB CP 114
B-1050 Brussels
Belgium

HOME PAGE: http://www.ecgi.org

Center for Studies in Economics and Finance - CSEF

84084 Fisciano, Salerno
Italy
+39 089 963 165 (Phone)
+39 089 963 169 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.csef.it/people/jappelli.htm

Maarten van Rooij

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

P.O. Box 98
Amsterdam, 1000 AB
Netherlands

HOME PAGE: http://www.dnb.nl/en/onderzoek-2/onderzoekers/overzicht-persoonlijke-paginas/dnb150127.jsp

Netspar ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

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