Congested Export Spillover in China

11 Pages Posted: 29 Jan 2016

See all articles by Qun Bao

Qun Bao

Nankai University

Ninghua Ye

Xiamen University

Ligang Song

Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy

Date Written: February 2016


This paper uses Chinese firm‐level data to investigate the possible nonlinear spillover caused by export congestion. We argue that there could exist an inverted‐U curve in terms of export spillover effect, resulting from the fact that once exporters become over‐agglomerated, export congestion is likely to cause negative export spillover. The estimation results support the hypothesis of an inverted‐U curve of export spillover effect. Further calculation shows that the degree of Chinese exporters’ congestion approximately ranges around 17–34% and demonstrates an increasing trend over time. The finding suggests that policies aimed at reducing export congestion such as industrial upgrading, improvement of firms’ efficiency and the current shift from export dependence towards domestic demand would be important for a more healthy development of China's exports in the future.

Suggested Citation

Bao, Qun and Ye, Ninghua and Song, Ligang, Congested Export Spillover in China (February 2016). Review of Development Economics, Vol. 20, Issue 1, pp. 272-282, 2016. Available at SSRN: or

Qun Bao (Contact Author)

Nankai University ( email )

94 Weijin Road
Tianjin, 300071

Ninghua Ye

Xiamen University

Xiamen, Fujian 361005

Ligang Song

Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy ( email )

Crawford Building
J.G. Crawford Building, #132, Lennox Crossing
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200

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