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Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability and Decision

28 Pages Posted: 1 Feb 2016 Last revised: 4 Feb 2016

Richard Bradley

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Philosophy

Casey Helgeson

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE)

Brian Hill

HEC Paris - Economics & Decision Sciences; CNRS

Date Written: January 28, 2016

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in their periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC's novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model.

Suggested Citation

Bradley, Richard and Helgeson, Casey and Hill, Brian, Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability and Decision (January 28, 2016). HEC Paris Research Paper No. ECO/SCD-2016-1131. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2724327 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2724327

Richard Bradley

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Philosophy ( email )

United States

Casey Helgeson

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) ( email )

Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

Brian Hill (Contact Author)

HEC Paris - Economics & Decision Sciences ( email )

Paris
France

CNRS ( email )

3, rue Michel-Ange
Paris, 75794
France

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