28 Pages Posted: 1 Feb 2016 Last revised: 4 Feb 2016
Date Written: January 28, 2016
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in their periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC's novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Bradley, Richard and Helgeson, Casey and Hill, Brian, Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability and Decision (January 28, 2016). HEC Paris Research Paper No. ECO/SCD-2016-1131. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2724327 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2724327