A Climate Stress-Test of the Financial System

Battiston, S., Mandel, A., Monasterolo, I., Schütze, F., & Visentin, G. (2017). A Climate stress-test of the financial system. Nature Climate Change, 7(4), 283–288. https://doi.org/doi:10.1038/nclimate3255

Posted: 3 Feb 2016 Last revised: 11 Sep 2020

See all articles by Stefano Battiston

Stefano Battiston

University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Ca Foscari University of Venice

Antoine Mandel

Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne

Irene Monasterolo

Boston University; Vienna University of Economics and Business

Franziska Schuetze

DIW Berlin; Global Climate Forum

Gabriele Visentin

University of Zurich - Institute of Mathematics

Date Written: March 27, 2017

Abstract

The urgency of estimating the impact of climate risks on the financial system is increasingly recognized among scholars and practitioners. By adopting a network approach to financial dependencies, we look at how climate policy risk might propagate through the financial system. We develop a network-based climate stress-test methodology and apply it to large Euro Area banks in a ‘green’ and a ‘brown’ scenario. We find that direct and indirect exposures to climate-policy-relevant sectors represent a large portion of investors’ equity portfolios, especially for investment and pension funds. Additionally, the portion of banks’ loan portfolios exposed to these sectors is comparable to banks’ capital. Our results suggest that climate policy timing matters. An early and stable policy framework would allow for smooth asset value adjustments and lead to potential net winners and losers. In contrast, a late and abrupt policy framework could have adverse systemic consequences.

Keywords: climate stress-test, climate policy risk, decarbonization, stress-test, stranded assets, carbon risk, climate-sensitive sectors

JEL Classification: C15, C23, G20, G21, G22, G23, G24, G28, H20, Q20, Q28, Q43, Q48

Suggested Citation

Battiston, Stefano and Mandel, Antoine and Monasterolo, Irene and Schuetze, Franziska and Visentin, Gabriele, A Climate Stress-Test of the Financial System (March 27, 2017). Battiston, S., Mandel, A., Monasterolo, I., Schütze, F., & Visentin, G. (2017). A Climate stress-test of the financial system. Nature Climate Change, 7(4), 283–288. https://doi.org/doi:10.1038/nclimate3255, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2726076 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2726076

Stefano Battiston

University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance ( email )

Andreasstrasse 15
Zürich, 8050
Switzerland

Ca Foscari University of Venice ( email )

Cannaregio 873
Venice, 30121
Italy

Antoine Mandel

Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne ( email )

17, rue de la Sorbonne
Paris, IL 75005
France

Irene Monasterolo

Boston University ( email )

595 Commonwealth Avenue
Boston, MA 02215
United States

Vienna University of Economics and Business ( email )

Welthandelsplatz 1
Vienna, Wien 1020
Austria

Franziska Schuetze

DIW Berlin ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Global Climate Forum ( email )

Gabriele Visentin (Contact Author)

University of Zurich - Institute of Mathematics ( email )

Switzerland

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
7,426
PlumX Metrics