Rising BRIC and Changes in Sub‐Saharan Africa's Business Cycle Patterns
25 Pages Posted: 3 Feb 2016
Date Written: February 2016
This paper assesses the extent to which Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA)'s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). SSA's business cycle has not only moved in the same direction as that of the RoW, but has also gradually drifted away from the G7 in favor of the BRIC. Trade with the BRIC has been the strongest driver of this shift. As fiscal policy stances in SSA and the BRIC are not synchronized, they have not caused output correlation. Also, financial openness, which is at an early stage in SSA, has acted as a neutral force.
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