Modeling the Effects of Grade Retention in High School

39 Pages Posted: 4 Feb 2016

See all articles by Stijn Baert

Stijn Baert

Ghent University; University of Antwerp; Catholic University of Louvain (UCL); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Bart Cockx

Ghent University - Sherppa - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain

Matteo Picchio

Polytechnic University of Marche

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 23, 2015

Abstract

A dynamic discrete choice model is set up to estimate the effects of grade retention in high school, both in the short- (end-of-year evaluation) and long-run (drop-out and delay). In contrast to regression discontinuity designs, this approach captures treatment heterogeneity and controls for grade-varying unobservable determinants. A method is proposed to deal with initial conditions and with partial observability of the track choices at the start of high school. Forced track downgrading is considered as an alternative remedial measure. In the long-run, grade retention and its alternative have adverse effects on schooling outcomes and, more so, for less able pupils.

Keywords: education, grade retention, track mobility, dynamic discrete choice models, heterogeneous treatment effects

JEL Classification: C330, C350, I210

Suggested Citation

Baert, Stijn and Cockx, Bart L. W. and Picchio, Matteo, Modeling the Effects of Grade Retention in High School (December 23, 2015). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5679, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2727100 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2727100

Stijn Baert

Ghent University ( email )

University of Antwerp ( email )

Prinsstraat 13
Antwerp, 2000
Belgium

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.uantwerpen.be/nl/personeel/stijn-baert/

Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) ( email )

Place Montesquieu, 3
Louvain-la-Neuve, 1348
Belgium

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.uclouvain.be/en-309318.html

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.iza.org/en/webcontent/personnel/photos/index_html?key=6832

Bart L. W. Cockx (Contact Author)

Ghent University - Sherppa - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration ( email )

Ghent, B-9000
Belgium

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain

Place Montesquieu, 3
Louvain-la-Neuve
Belgium

Matteo Picchio

Polytechnic University of Marche ( email )

Piazzale Martelli 8
Ancona, 60121
Italy

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