41 Pages Posted: 5 Feb 2016 Last revised: 9 Feb 2016
Date Written: February 7, 2016
This is a user-friendly aid to understanding the Hot Hand selection bias discovered in Miller and Sanjurjo (2015); "Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers." It attempts to address the most frequently asked questions, and draw out the connections to previous results. A table of contents is placed at the beginning to facilitate navigation.
Keywords: hot hand, hot hand fallacy, sampling-without-repacement, Simpson's Paradox, Berkson's Paradox, Penney's Game, overlapping words paradox, optional stopping, finite sample bias, Monty Hall
JEL Classification: C00, C1, C11
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Miller, Joshua Benjamin and Sanjurjo, Adam, A Primer and Frequently Asked Questions for 'Surprised by the Gamblers and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers' (Miller and Sanjurjo 2015) (February 7, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2728151 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2728151