Download this Paper Open PDF in Browser

A Primer and Frequently Asked Questions for 'Surprised by the Gamblers and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers' (Miller and Sanjurjo 2015)

41 Pages Posted: 5 Feb 2016 Last revised: 9 Feb 2016

Joshua Benjamin Miller

Bocconi University - Department of Decision Sciences; IGIER - Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research

Adam Sanjurjo

Universidad de Alicante - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico

Date Written: February 7, 2016

Abstract

This is a user-friendly aid to understanding the Hot Hand selection bias discovered in Miller and Sanjurjo (2015); "Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers." It attempts to address the most frequently asked questions, and draw out the connections to previous results. A table of contents is placed at the beginning to facilitate navigation.

Keywords: hot hand, hot hand fallacy, sampling-without-repacement, Simpson's Paradox, Berkson's Paradox, Penney's Game, overlapping words paradox, optional stopping, finite sample bias, Monty Hall

JEL Classification: C00, C1, C11

Suggested Citation

Miller, Joshua Benjamin and Sanjurjo, Adam, A Primer and Frequently Asked Questions for 'Surprised by the Gamblers and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers' (Miller and Sanjurjo 2015) (February 7, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2728151 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2728151

Joshua Benjarmin Miller (Contact Author)

Bocconi University - Department of Decision Sciences ( email )

Via Roentgen 1
Milan, 20136
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://didattica.unibocconi.eu/mypage/index.php?IdUte=111643&lingua=eng

IGIER - Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research ( email )

Via Roentgen 1
Milan, 20136
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://didattica.unibocconi.eu/myigier/index.php?IdUte=111643

Adam Sanjurjo

Universidad de Alicante - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico ( email )

Campus de San Vicente
Alicante, 03690
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/site/adamangelsanjurjo/

Paper statistics

Downloads
490
Rank
46,704
Abstract Views
1,090