A Primer and Frequently Asked Questions for 'Surprised by the Gamblers and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers' (Miller and Sanjurjo 2015)

41 Pages Posted: 5 Feb 2016 Last revised: 9 Feb 2016

Joshua B. Miller

University of Alicante - Department of Economics

Adam Sanjurjo

Universidad de Alicante - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico

Date Written: February 7, 2016

Abstract

This is a user-friendly aid to understanding the Hot Hand selection bias discovered in Miller and Sanjurjo (2015); "Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers." It attempts to address the most frequently asked questions, and draw out the connections to previous results. A table of contents is placed at the beginning to facilitate navigation.

Keywords: hot hand, hot hand fallacy, sampling-without-repacement, Simpson's Paradox, Berkson's Paradox, Penney's Game, overlapping words paradox, optional stopping, finite sample bias, Monty Hall

JEL Classification: C00, C1, C11

Suggested Citation

Miller, Joshua B. and Sanjurjo, Adam, A Primer and Frequently Asked Questions for 'Surprised by the Gamblers and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers' (Miller and Sanjurjo 2015) (February 7, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2728151 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2728151

Joshua B. Miller (Contact Author)

University of Alicante - Department of Economics ( email )

Apartado de Correos 99
Alicante, 03080
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://joshua-benjamin-miller.com

Adam Sanjurjo

Universidad de Alicante - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico ( email )

Campus de San Vicente
Alicante, 03690
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/site/adamangelsanjurjo/

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