A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Inferring Player Strategy Types in a Number Guessing Game
The Annals of Applied Statistics, 2015, Vol. 9, No. 3, 1459–1483.
25 Pages Posted: 8 Feb 2016
Date Written: April 11, 2015
The p-beauty contest is a multi-player number guessing game that is widely used to study strategic behavior. Using new data from a specially-designed web experiment, we examine the evidence in favor of a popular class of behavioral economic models called k-step thinking models. After fitting a custom Bayesian spline model to the experimental data, we estimate that the proportion of players who could be using a k-step thinking strategy is approximately 25%.
Keywords: behavioral game theory, hierarchical modeling, partial identification
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