A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Inferring Player Strategy Types in a Number Guessing Game

The Annals of Applied Statistics, 2015, Vol. 9, No. 3, 1459–1483.

25 Pages Posted: 8 Feb 2016

See all articles by P. Richard Hahn

P. Richard Hahn

Arizona State University (ASU) - School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences

Indranil Goswami

University at Buffalo, SUNY - Department of Marketing

Carl F. Mela

Duke University - Fuqua School of Business

Date Written: April 11, 2015

Abstract

The p-beauty contest is a multi-player number guessing game that is widely used to study strategic behavior. Using new data from a specially-designed web experiment, we examine the evidence in favor of a popular class of behavioral economic models called k-step thinking models. After fitting a custom Bayesian spline model to the experimental data, we estimate that the proportion of players who could be using a k-step thinking strategy is approximately 25%.

Keywords: behavioral game theory, hierarchical modeling, partial identification

Suggested Citation

Hahn, P. Richard and Goswami, Indranil and Mela, Carl F., A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Inferring Player Strategy Types in a Number Guessing Game (April 11, 2015). The Annals of Applied Statistics, 2015, Vol. 9, No. 3, 1459–1483.. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2729108

P. Richard Hahn (Contact Author)

Arizona State University (ASU) - School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences ( email )

Tempe, AZ 85287-1804
United States

Indranil Goswami

University at Buffalo, SUNY - Department of Marketing ( email )

Buffalo, NY
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://mgt.buffalo.edu/faculty/academic-departments/marketing/faculty/indranil-goswami.html

Carl F. Mela

Duke University - Fuqua School of Business ( email )

Box 90120
Durham, NC 27708-0120
United States
919-660-7767 (Phone)

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