Macro News and Exchange Rates in the BRICS
10 Pages Posted: 10 Feb 2016
Date Written: February 2016
This paper examines the effects of newspaper headlines on the exchange rates vis-à-vis both the US dollar and the euro for the currencies of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The data are daily and cover the period 03/1/2000-12/5/2013. The estimated VAR-GARCH (1,1) model allows for both mean and volatility spillovers and for the possible impact of the recent financial crisis as well. The results differ across countries, but provide in a number of cases evidence of significant spillovers, whose strength appears to have increased during the crisis. Further, given the increasingly global role of these countries, their FX markets have become more responsive to foreign news.
Keywords: BRICS, Exchange Rates, GARCH model, Macro news
JEL Classification: C32, F36, G15
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation