Using Experience Curve to Project Net Hydroelectricity Generation - In Comparison to EIA's Projection

We use a simple experience curve to project hydroelectricity intensity which in turn is used to estimate net hydroelectricity generation for year 2020, 2030, and 2040. We then compare for the same ten countries our projected net hydroelectricity generation to those projected in the 2013 International Energy Outlook published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Our 2040 projection is 77% higher than EIA’s for China and also 58% higher for Brazil. For five other countries, EIA’s projections are higher than ours, but by much smaller margin. Implications from our finding will be discussed.

Keywords: hydroelectricity intensity, net hydroelectricity generation, hydropower, experience curve

JEL Classification: Q4

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Chang, Yu Sang and Jo, Sung Jun and Jeon, Seongmin, Using Experience Curve to Project Net Hydroelectricity Generation - In Comparison to EIA's Projection (February 15, 2016). International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy (2017), Vol. 13, No. 4, pp.305 - 319, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2732485 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2732485