Is the 2040 Projection on Net Electricity Generation by Energy Information Administration Too Conservative? In Comparison to Alternate Projection Using Experience Curve

GCCR working paper series 2016-03

24 Pages Posted: 16 Feb 2016 Last revised: 27 Dec 2019

See all articles by Yu Sang Chang

Yu Sang Chang

Gachon University - College of Business and Economics

Jong Yi

Gachon University

Sung Jun Jo

Gachon University - College of Business and Economics

Yoo-Taek Lee

Endicott College of International Studies, Woosong University

Date Written: February 15, 2016

Abstract

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy has projected net electricity generation through 2040 for ten selected countries and the world. These ten countries including China and the U.S. are projected to produce 70% of the world electricity generation. Some of the past projections by EIA have been rated too conservative. Using a simple experience curve, we produce alternative projections for comparison. Our projections are significantly higher for eight out of the ten countries. Utilities operating in these eight countries may need to reexamine their plan for future net electricity generation.

Keywords: Net electricity generation, Electricity intensity, Kinked experience curve, Classical experience curve, Energy Information Administration

JEL Classification: Q4

Suggested Citation

Chang, Yu Sang and Yi, Jong and Jo, Sung Jun and Lee, Yoo-Taek, Is the 2040 Projection on Net Electricity Generation by Energy Information Administration Too Conservative? In Comparison to Alternate Projection Using Experience Curve (February 15, 2016). GCCR working paper series 2016-03, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2732488 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2732488

Yu Sang Chang (Contact Author)

Gachon University - College of Business and Economics ( email )

Korea

Jong Yi

Gachon University

1342 Seongnam-daero, Sujeong-gu, Seongnam-si
Seongnam, Gyeinggi-do
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Sung Jun Jo

Gachon University - College of Business and Economics ( email )

Korea

Yoo-Taek Lee

Endicott College of International Studies, Woosong University ( email )

171 Dongdaejeon-ro
Dong-gu
Daejeon, 34606
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)
042-630-9795 (Phone)
042-630-9881 (Fax)

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