Is the 2040 Projection on Net Electricity Generation by Energy Information Administration Too Conservative? In Comparison to Alternate Projection Using Experience Curve

Abstract

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy has projected net electricity generation through 2040 for ten selected countries and the world. These ten countries including China and the U.S. are projected to produce 70% of the world electricity generation. Some of the past projections by EIA have been rated too conservative. Using a simple experience curve, we produce alternative projections for comparison. Our projections are significantly higher for eight out of the ten countries. Utilities operating in these eight countries may need to reexamine their plan for future net electricity generation.

Keywords: Net electricity generation, Electricity intensity, Kinked experience curve, Classical experience curve, Energy Information Administration

JEL Classification: Q4