The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy

36 Pages Posted: 17 Feb 2016

See all articles by Kamiar Mohaddes

Kamiar Mohaddes

University of Cambridge - Judge Business School; University of Cambridge - King's College, Cambridge

Mehdi Raissi

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Fiscal Affairs Department

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 2015

Abstract

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through imposing dynamic sign restrictions on the impulse responses of the model. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to a U.S. supply-driven oil price shock, with real GDP increasing in both advanced and emerging market oil-importing economies, output declining in commodity exporters, inflation falling in most countries, and equity prices rising worldwide. Overall, our results suggest that following the U.S. oil revolution, with oil prices falling by 51 percent in the first year, global growth increases by 0.16 to 0.37 percentage points. This is mainly due to an increase in spending by oil importing countries, which exceeds the decline in expenditure by oil exporters.

Keywords: Tight oil, shale oil, fracking revolution, oil price decline, oil supply, global macroeconometric modeling, international business cycle, oil, prices, oil prices, price, oil production, Time-Series Models, International Business Cycles, Forecasting and Simulation

JEL Classification: C22, F44, F47, O13, E17, Q43, C32

Suggested Citation

Mohaddes, Kamiar and Raissi, Mehdi, The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy (December 2015). IMF Working Paper No. 15/259, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2733569

Kamiar Mohaddes (Contact Author)

University of Cambridge - Judge Business School ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://https://www.mohaddes.org/

University of Cambridge - King's College, Cambridge ( email )

King's Parade
Cambridge, CB2 1ST
United Kingdom
+44 (0)1223 766933 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.mohaddes.org/

Mehdi Raissi

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Fiscal Affairs Department ( email )

700 19th Street, NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/mehdiraissi/

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