Population Dynamics and Convergence in Fertility Rates

Abstract

Empirical studies of per capita income convergence across countries have proliferated in the past decade. The purpose of this paper is to build upon that literature by examining demographic, rather than economic, convergence. In this paper, we examine whether fertility rates have been converging across countries. Our results indicate that fertility rates are indeed converging both absolutely and conditionally. Furthermore, the dispersion of fertility rates also seems to be falling, indicating the presence of sigma convergence. A simple model is presented which suggests that this might be an artifact of transitional effects of later childbearing, rather than a slowdown of long-run fertility rates.

JEL Classification: J11, J13