Population Dynamics and Convergence in Fertility Rates

IoES Working Paper No. W99:12

19 Pages Posted: 16 Jun 2001

See all articles by Tryggvi Thor Herbertsson

Tryggvi Thor Herbertsson

University of Reykjavik

Peter R. Orszag

Lazard Asset Management

J. Michael Orszag

Willis Towers Watson - Reigate (Surrey Office); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Date Written: March 2001

Abstract

Empirical studies of per capita income convergence across countries have proliferated in the past decade. The purpose of this paper is to build upon that literature by examining demographic, rather than economic, convergence. In this paper, we examine whether fertility rates have been converging across countries. Our results indicate that fertility rates are indeed converging both absolutely and conditionally. Furthermore, the dispersion of fertility rates also seems to be falling, indicating the presence of sigma convergence. A simple model is presented which suggests that this might be an artifact of transitional effects of later childbearing, rather than a slowdown of long-run fertility rates.

JEL Classification: J11, J13

Suggested Citation

Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor and Orszag, Peter R. and Orszag, J. Michael, Population Dynamics and Convergence in Fertility Rates (March 2001). IoES Working Paper No. W99:12. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=273382 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.273382

Tryggvi Thor Herbertsson (Contact Author)

University of Reykjavik ( email )

Reykjavik
Iceland
+354 8613162 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ru.is

Peter R. Orszag

Lazard Asset Management ( email )

30 Rockefeller Plaza
New York, NY 10112
United States

J. Michael Orszag

Willis Towers Watson - Reigate (Surrey Office) ( email )

Watson House
London Road
Reigate, Surrey, RH2 9PQ
United Kingdom
+44 1737 241144 (Phone)
+44 1737 241496 (Fax)

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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