Canola Market Impacts Under Alternative TPP Scenarios

Research Report for the Canola Council of Canada, 2016

30 Pages Posted: 3 Mar 2016

See all articles by Dan Ciuriak

Dan Ciuriak

Ciuriak Consulting Inc.; Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI); C.D. Howe Institute; Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada; BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH

Jingliang Xiao

Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc.; Ciuriak Consulting Inc.

Date Written: January 6, 2016

Abstract

This study estimates the impact of the TPP on Canada's oilseed sector as a whole and on the canola sector in particular. The results are based on a general equilibrium analysis of the trade flows for oilseeds, vegetable oil and meal. The overall analysis is conducted using the GTAP general equilibrium framework, which represents the oilseed sector as a whole; we disaggregate the results into canola and "other" oilseed sector products. This is accomplished in part using a partial equilibrium model to identify the direct trade impacts, subject to constraints regarding the relationship between changes in seed, oil and meal production. The impacts on the oilseed sector generated by the GTAP model take into account the overall economic effects of the TPP, including on production of other agricultural and industrial products, and thus the competition within Canada for land, capital and labour across sectors, as well as competition between Canada and other TPP suppliers in TPP markets. Our results suggest that the main impact on the canola sector will be on processing rather than the growing sector. Obtaining immediate tariff elimination versus a gradual phase-out substantially increases the present value of the TPP concessions.

Keywords: Canola, Canada, TPP, tariff elimination

JEL Classification: F14, L70

Suggested Citation

Ciuriak, Dan and Xiao, Jingliang, Canola Market Impacts Under Alternative TPP Scenarios (January 6, 2016). Research Report for the Canola Council of Canada, 2016. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2740601

Dan Ciuriak (Contact Author)

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) ( email )

57 Erb Street West
Waterloo, Ontario N2L 6C2
Canada

C.D. Howe Institute ( email )

67 Yonge St., Suite 300
Toronto, Ontario M5E 1J8
Canada

Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada ( email )

Canada

HOME PAGE: http://ciuriakconsulting.com/

BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH ( email )

Romanstrasse 74
M√ľnchen, 80639
Germany

Jingliang Xiao

Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc. ( email )

16167,Glenbrooks Pl
Vancouver, BC - British Columbia v4n1t3
Canada
6047245981 (Phone)
6047245981 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.infsum.com/en/

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
34
Abstract Views
311
PlumX Metrics