Quantifying Australia's 'Three‐Speed' Boom

24 Pages Posted: 2 Mar 2016

See all articles by Rod Tyers

Rod Tyers

Australian National University (ANU) - School of Economics; The University of Western Australia - Department of Economics

Aaron Walker

Reserve Bank of Australia

Date Written: March 2016

Abstract

We conjecture that a 'secondary services boom' is primarily responsible for the widespread nature of the gains in employment during Australia's recent 'China boom'. An economy‐wide model provides numerical theory for constructing hypotheses, which are tested econometrically. Predictions that include a services expansion and de‐industrialisation are tested against pre‐boom data and out‐of‐sample simulations through the boom. The secondary services boom appears clearly in both income and employment, though the effects on manufacturing are ambiguous, with stronger‐than‐hypothesised observed performance, suggesting that changes in industrial structure and the composition of assistance have favoured surviving manufacturing firms.

Suggested Citation

Tyers, Rod and Walker, Aaron, Quantifying Australia's 'Three‐Speed' Boom (March 2016). Australian Economic Review, Vol. 49, Issue 1, pp. 20-43, 2016, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2740762 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12130

Rod Tyers (Contact Author)

Australian National University (ANU) - School of Economics ( email )

Arndt Building
Australian National University
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia
61-6-249-5124 (Fax)

The University of Western Australia - Department of Economics ( email )

35 Stirling Highway
Crawley, Western Australia 6009
Australia
61 8 6488 5632 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.business.uwa.edu.au/school/staff-profiles?type=profile&dn=cn%3DRodney%20Tyers%2Cou%3DEcon

Aaron Walker

Reserve Bank of Australia ( email )

65, Martin Place
Sydney, NSW 2000
Australia

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