Population, Land, Grain Production and Consumption, Range and Other Feed Sources for Livestock: Past, Present and Projected to 2025 for Central Asia

26 Pages Posted: 27 Aug 2016

See all articles by Thomas L. Nordblom

Thomas L. Nordblom

Graham Centre for Agricultural Innovation (Charles Sturt University & NSW DPI)

Farouk Shomo

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA)

Gustave Gintzburger

Independent

Euan Thomson

Independent

Date Written: 1997

Abstract

This paper aims to provide needed perspectives on past and future shifts in key demographic and farming systems parameters of the Central Asian republics in support of proposals for research on targeted range areas in partnership with the human communities using and managing them.

With populations projected to more than double by the year 2025 in three of the republics (Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) and to continue increasing rapidly in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan as well, expanding deficits in food and feed grain production are projected for all but Kazakhstan.

Rangelands, totaling about 250 million hectares in the region, account for the largest share of the land surface of each Central Asian republic. This is comparable with the total area of steppe land (100-400 mm precipitation) in all of West Asia and North Africa, about 272 million hectares. The national-level statistics selected and generated for this treatment are the ones most relevant for quantifying the importance of rangeland resources in livestock production in conjunction with the use of crop residues, agro-industrial by-products and feed grains.

Both livestock numbers and feed resources in aggregate have expanded in the past 20 years, except in the case of Kazakhstan where feed production has fallen. In Kazakhstan, where wheat straw production dropped from 17 to 10 million tons, rangelands and feed grains and other concentrates accounted for increased shares of total feed. Both crop residues and rangelands were displaced by feed grains in Tajikistan. In the other three republics, the proportions of total feed provided by rangelands declined with increased crop residue production and use of feed grains and other concentrates.

With the exception of Kazakhstan again, all the Central Asian republics are in feed-deficit situations now. And, with the exception of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, in only the highest growth scenarios, all are projected to plunge into far greater deficits in the coming decades, assuming constant current per capita livestock inventories. The likely result will be increased pressure on the rangelands of the four feed-deficit republics in the form of overgrazing and cultivation.

Research needs which could be tackled in collaboration with ICARDA are identified. These include work in several broad categories: genetic resources; livestock management (nutrition/health complex); integrated management of range, crops and livestock; rangeland vegetation and natural resource management mapping with GIS; strengthening institutions; and social, economic, policy and property right issues in range development.

Note: Downloadable document is in English and Russian.

Keywords: Central Asian, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Population, Land, Grain production and consumption, Range, Other feed sources, Livestock, Projected to 2025, Russian

Suggested Citation

Nordblom, Thomas L. and Shomo, Farouk and Gintzburger, Gustave and Thomson, Euan, Population, Land, Grain Production and Consumption, Range and Other Feed Sources for Livestock: Past, Present and Projected to 2025 for Central Asia (1997). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2741420 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2741420

Thomas L. Nordblom (Contact Author)

Graham Centre for Agricultural Innovation (Charles Sturt University & NSW DPI) ( email )

Albert Pugsley Place
Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650
Australia
+61419290428 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.csu.edu.au/research/grahamcentre/our-people/members2/tom-nordblom

Farouk Shomo

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) ( email )

Tunisia

Gustave Gintzburger

Independent ( email )

Euan Thomson

Independent ( email )

No Address Available
United States

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