Download this Paper Open PDF in Browser

Leverage for the Long Run - A Systematic Approach to Managing Risk and Magnifying Returns in Stocks

18 Pages Posted: 7 Mar 2016  

Michael A. Gayed

Pension Partners, LLC

Charles V. Bilello

Pension Partners, LLC

Date Written: March 3, 2016

Abstract

Using leverage to magnify performance is an idea that has enticed investors and traders throughout history. The critical question of when to employ leverage and when to reduce risk, though, is not often addressed. We establish that volatility is the enemy of leverage and that streaks in performance tend to be beneficial to using margin. The conditions under which higher returns would be achieved from using leverage, then, are low volatility environments that are more likely to experience consecutive positive returns. We find that Moving Averages are an effective way to identify such environments in a systematic fashion. When the broad U.S. equity market is above its Moving Average, stocks tend to exhibit lower than average volatility going forward, higher average daily performance, and longer streaks of positive returns. When below its Moving Average, the opposite tends to be true, as volatility often rises, average daily returns are lower, and streaks in positive returns become less frequent. Armed with this finding, we developed a strategy that employs leverage when the market is above its Moving Average and deleverages (moving to Treasury bills) when the market is below its Moving Average. This strategy shows better absolute and risk-adjusted returns than a comparable buy and hold unleveraged strategy as well as a constant leverage strategy. The results are robust to various leverage amounts, Moving Average time periods, and across multiple economic and financial market cycles.

Keywords: Leverage, Moving Averages, Stocks, Trading, Market, Momentum, Rotation, Volatility, Alpha, Beta, Equities, Quantitative, Efficient Markets, Asset Allocation

JEL Classification: C00, C10, C50, G00, G11

Suggested Citation

Gayed, Michael A. and Bilello, Charles V., Leverage for the Long Run - A Systematic Approach to Managing Risk and Magnifying Returns in Stocks (March 3, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2741701 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2741701

Michael A. Gayed (Contact Author)

Pension Partners, LLC ( email )

430 West 14th Street
Suite 505
New York, NY 10014
United States
2122555000 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.pensionpartners.com

Charles V. Bilello

Pension Partners, LLC ( email )

430 West 14th Street
Suite 505
New York, NY 10014
United States
212-255-5000 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.pensionpartners.com

Paper statistics

Downloads
3,049
Rank
2,725
Abstract Views
7,486