Employment Persistence

36 Pages Posted: 25 Jul 2001

See all articles by Charles A. Fleischman

Charles A. Fleischman

Federal Reserve Board - Macroeconomic Analysis Section

Joshua Gallin

Federal Reserve Board - Research & Statistics

Date Written: July 24, 2001

Abstract

The recent U.S. expansion has provided employment experience to individuals at tail of the skill distribution. Will these opportunities bestow persistent benefits in the form of greater future employability? Using synthetic cohorts constructed from the CPS, this paper estimates the degree of persistence in cohort-level employment rates in excess of persistence in aggregate macroeconomic conditions. This approach is in some ways superior to testing for hysteresis in the aggregate unemployment rate because it abstracts away from compositional changes in the labor force by focusing on particular demographic groups. After controlling for aggregate conditions, there is little evidence of significant persistence in cohorts' employment rates; the effects of aggregate shocks are essentially dissipated within three years. However, economic conditions that prevailed when the cohorts first entered the labor market significantly affect the average lifetime employment rate of cohorts of less-educated men.

JEL Classification: E32, E24, J23, J64

Suggested Citation

Fleischman, Charles A. and Gallin, Joshua, Employment Persistence (July 24, 2001). FEDS Working Paper No. 2001-25. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=274171 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.274171

Charles A. Fleischman (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Board - Macroeconomic Analysis Section ( email )

20th & C. St., N.W.
Mailstop 80
Washington, DC 20551
United States
202-452-6473 (Phone)

Joshua Gallin

Federal Reserve Board - Research & Statistics ( email )

20th & C. St., N.W.
Mailstop 80
Washington, DC 20551
United States
(202) 452-2788 (Phone)
(202) 872-4927 (Fax)

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
71
Abstract Views
1,113
rank
349,108
PlumX Metrics