The Role of Innovative Entrepreneurship within Colombian Business Cycle Scenarios: A System Dynamics Approach

Futures, 81, 130-147

Posted: 7 Mar 2016 Last revised: 10 Mar 2017

See all articles by Sebastian Aparicio

Sebastian Aparicio

Durham University Business School; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Fundación ECSIM Centro de Estudios en Economía Sistémica

David Urbano

Autonomous University of Barcelona

Diego Gómez

Fundación ECSIM Centro de Estudios en Economía Sistémica

Date Written: March 2, 2016

Abstract

Since the advent of public and private initiatives in Colombia, there has been interest in exploring the possible future pathways of the Colombian business cycle. Based on a foresight analysis, it has been identified on the one hand that it is necessary to achieve greater productivity and competitiveness and on the other hand, collective intentionality towards progress must be encouraged. Using these analyses, new Colombian scenarios are discussed, taking into account intentionality towards entrepreneurship and innovation. Following the entrepreneurship research, it is suggested that innovative entrepreneurial activity is linked to long-term economic growth. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to identify the role of innovative entrepreneurship in Colombian business cycle scenarios using system dynamics (SD) modelling. Here, we approach futures studies, testing dynamic hypotheses concerning development based on societal and socioeconomic integration, in which innovative entrepreneurship is highly relevant. The model, supported by circular flow analysis and Schumpeterian theory, shows how this type of entrepreneurship contributes to sustainable economic growth during the simulation period (2003-2032). To achieve a 6.77% average growth rate (the higher scenario), policies regarding knowledge transfer from specialized foreign individuals, incumbent firms and universities, as well as incentives for entrepreneurial societies and collectivism, are discussed.

Keywords: Innovative entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial activity, business cycle, scenario analysis, system dynamics, Colombia

JEL Classification: M13, O31, O40, E32, E17

Suggested Citation

Aparicio, Sebastian and Urbano, David and Gómez, Diego, The Role of Innovative Entrepreneurship within Colombian Business Cycle Scenarios: A System Dynamics Approach (March 2, 2016). Futures, 81, 130-147, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2742749

Sebastian Aparicio (Contact Author)

Durham University Business School ( email )

Mill Hill Lane
Durham, DH1 3LB
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.dur.ac.uk/business/

Autonomous University of Barcelona ( email )

Plaça Cívica
Cerdañola del Valles
Barcelona, Barcelona 08193
Spain

Fundación ECSIM Centro de Estudios en Economía Sistémica ( email )

Cr. 43 A # 6 sur – 26, of. 423-424-425
Medellín, Antioquia
Colombia

HOME PAGE: http://www.ecsim.org

David Urbano

Autonomous University of Barcelona ( email )

Edifici B, Campus UAB
Bellaterra, Barcelona 08193
Spain
34935811209 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.davidurbano.eu

Diego Gómez

Fundación ECSIM Centro de Estudios en Economía Sistémica ( email )

Cr. 43 A # 6 sur – 26, of. 423-424-425
Medellín, Antioquia
Colombia

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