Taking the Measure of the TPP as Negotiated

65 Pages Posted: 7 Mar 2016 Last revised: 15 Mar 2016

Dan Ciuriak

Ciuriak Consulting Inc.; C.D. Howe Institute; Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI); BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH

Ali Dadkhah

Ciuriak Consulting; Infinity Law

Jingliang Xiao

Infinite Sum Modeling; Ciuriak Consulting Inc.

Date Written: March 4, 2016

Abstract

We assess the impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as negotiated, based on the actual text and liberalization schedules, supplemented by the technical summaries provided by various governments interpreting the outcome of the negotiations. In addition to the impact of tariff reductions and the expansion of agricultural market access through tariff rate quota concessions, we take into account estimates of likely preference utilization, and the impact of non-tariff barriers on trade in goods and services and on investment. We evaluate the latter on the basis of the extent to which the TPP reduces the parties’ scores on indexes measuring restrictiveness of the parties’ regimes for goods, services, and investment. We also take into account the value of binding market access commitments for services trade. We consider the potential spillovers on third parties of higher labour and environmental standards as well as of standards harmonization. We comment on the welfare costs stemming from the administrative burden of preferential trade and from compensating agricultural subsidies promised in some parties’ sensitive sectors; and discuss the implications of the TPP intellectual property regime. The assessment is based on a dynamic specification of the Global Trade Analysis Project model, modified to directly represent goods and services trade conducted through foreign affiliates, as well as on a cross-border basis, and to reflect the impact of liberalization of foreign direct investment.

Keywords: Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP, CGE model, trade liberalization, FDI, Mode 3 services, non-tariff barriers, NTBs, standards, value of bindings, spillovers

JEL Classification: F02, F13, F15

Suggested Citation

Ciuriak, Dan and Dadkhah, Ali and Xiao, Jingliang, Taking the Measure of the TPP as Negotiated (March 4, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2743009 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2743009

Dan Ciuriak (Contact Author)

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

C.D. Howe Institute ( email )

67 Yonge St., Suite 300
Toronto, Ontario M5E 1J8
Canada

Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) ( email )

57 Erb Street West
Waterloo, Ontario N2L 6C2
Canada

BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH ( email )

Romanstrasse 74
München, 80639
Germany

Ali Dadkhah

Ciuriak Consulting ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

Infinity Law ( email )

200-931 Fort St.
Victoria, V8V 3K3
Canada

Jingliang Xiao

Infinite Sum Modeling ( email )

16167,Glenbrooks Pl
Vancouver, BC - British Columbia v4n1t3
Canada
6047245981 (Phone)
6047245981 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.infsum.com/en/

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

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