Why Has the Euro Been Falling?

41 Pages Posted: 21 Jul 2001

See all articles by Hans-Werner Sinn

Hans-Werner Sinn

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU)

Frank Westermann

University of Osnabrueck - Department of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute

Date Written: May 2001

Abstract

This paper reconsiders the determinants of the exchange rate by studying the historical episode after the fall of the Iron Curtain. Testing a modified portfolio balance model, we attribute the strength of the deutschmark in the early nineties and the puzzling decline of the euro during its virtual existence to changes in the demand for deutschmarks in eastern Europe and to variations in the demand for black money balances in Europe as a whole. We reject the view that the strength of the dollar and the weakness of the euro reflect the prosperity of the US and the weakness of the European economy on both theoretical and empirical grounds.

JEL Classification: F31, E58, E65, E41

Suggested Citation

Sinn, Hans-Werner and Westermann, Frank, Why Has the Euro Been Falling? (May 2001). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 493. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=274471

Hans-Werner Sinn (Contact Author)

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Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU)

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Frank Westermann

University of Osnabrueck - Department of Economics ( email )

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Osnabrueck, D-49069
Germany

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, 01069
Germany

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