The Other Canon Against Washington Consensus: Re-Industrialization as a Condition for Revival and Development

Abstract

English Abstract: The paper considers the problems of the alternatives to the mainstream in recent economic thought, that resulted in Washington Consensus. The results of the reforms in so called post-communist countries, based on Consensus, showed, with some exceptions, that these countries realized deep and long-term economic fall, followed by similar processes in other spheres. Contrary to ordinary opinions that transition crisis show as result of inconsistency in reforms taking, this is normaly its result. As an analogue is the Morgenthau’s plan for West Germany observed, that has promoted Germany to industrial disarmament, and that would lead to its poverty and its transformation into raw material basis for the developed economies, and to impossibility of survival of the existing number of population. Fortunately for the Germany, Morgenthau’s plan was abandoned and Marshall’s plan was introduced. It lead to industrial renewal of Germany. For the transition countries it is also necessary, considering the practice and basic principles of the Other Canon, which have they origins as far as from the economic policy of Henry VII, to acess re-industrialization in the same way, which is the necessity for renewall of economies, and for overcoming the long-term crisis.

Serbian Abstract: Rad razmatra probleme alternativa glavnom toku u savremenoj ekonomskoj misli, koji je rezultovao Vašingtonskim konsenzusom. Rezultati reformi u tzv. postkomunističkim zemljama, zasnovanih na Konsenzusu, pokazuju, uz manje izuzetke, dubok i dugotrajan ekonomski pad, uz negativne procese i u drugim sferama. Nasuprot uobičajenim mišljenjima da je tranziciona kriza rezultat nedoslednosti u sprovođenju reformi, ona je upravo suprotno njihov zakonomeran rezultat. Kao analog ističe se Morgentauov plan za Z. Nemačku, kojim je nakon Drugog svetskog rata bilo predviđeno da ona bude industrijski razoružana, što bi vodilo njenom siromašenju i pretvaranju u sirovinski dodatak razvijenim privredama, i onemogućilo opstanak tadašnjeg broja stanovnika. Na sreću po Nemačku, Morgentauov plan je zamenjen Maršalovim koji joj je obezbedio industrijsku obnovu. I za tranzicione zemlje potrebno je, u skladu s postavkama i praksom Drugog kanona, koji potiče od ekonomske politike Henrija VII, pristupiti reindustrijalizaciji, kao nužnom uslovu oživljavanja privreda i izlaska iz dugotrajne krize.

Keywords: Other canon, Washington consensus, transition crisis, industrialization, Morgenthau’s plan, Marshall’s plan, development Drugi kanon, Vašingtonski konsenzus, tranziciona kriza, industrijalizacija, Morgentauov plan, Maršalov plan, razvoj

JEL Classification: B13, N14, P20, P21, P30