Measuring Expectations of Inflation: Effects of Survey Mode, Wording, and Opportunities to Revise

49 Pages Posted: 13 Mar 2016

See all articles by Wändi Bruine de Bruin

Wändi Bruine de Bruin

Carnegie Mellon University

Wilbert van der Klaauw

Federal Reserve Bank of New York; IZA

Maarten van Rooij

De Nederlandsche Bank; Netspar

Federica Teppa

De Nederlandsche Bank

Klaas de Vos

CentERdata; Tilburg University - Center for Economic Research (CentER)

Date Written: March 7, 2016

Abstract

Several national consumer surveys aim to elicit consumers’ inflation expectations. Median reported expectations have been shown to track objective inflation estimates over time, although respondents display relatively large disagreement. Observed medians, however, tend to differ between consumer surveys, possibly reflecting survey design differences. In this paper, we examine the importance of three survey features in explaining these differences: question wording (‘prices in general’ vs. ‘inflation’), interview mode (face-to-face vs. web), and the explicit opportunity to revise responses. We find systematic effects on item non-responses, reported inflation expectations and their dispersion. We discuss implications of our findings for survey design.

Keywords: Consumer surveys, inflation expectations, question wording, mode effects

JEL Classification: E31, D84

Suggested Citation

Bruine de Bruin, Wändi and van der Klaauw, H. Wilbert and van Rooij, Maarten and Teppa, Federica and de Vos, Klaas, Measuring Expectations of Inflation: Effects of Survey Mode, Wording, and Opportunities to Revise (March 7, 2016). De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 506, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2745831 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2745831

Wändi Bruine de Bruin (Contact Author)

Carnegie Mellon University ( email )

Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
United States

H. Wilbert Van der Klaauw

Federal Reserve Bank of New York ( email )

33 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10045
United States
212-720-5916 (Phone)
212-720-1844 (Fax)

IZA ( email )

Maarten van Rooij

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

P.O. Box 98
Amsterdam, 1000 AB
Netherlands

HOME PAGE: http://www.dnb.nl/en/onderzoek-2/onderzoekers/overzicht-persoonlijke-paginas/dnb150127.jsp

Netspar ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

Federica Teppa

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

PO Box 98
1000 AB Amsterdam
Amsterdam, 1000 AB
Netherlands

Klaas De Vos

CentERdata ( email )

PO Box 90153
Tilburg, NL 5000 LE
Netherlands

Tilburg University - Center for Economic Research (CentER) ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

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