Renewable Energy Intermittency and its Impact on Thermal Generation

EUI Working Paper RSCAS 2016/16

35 Pages Posted: 11 Mar 2016

See all articles by Christoph Graf

Christoph Graf

Stanford University - Department of Economics

Claudio Marcantonini

European University Institute - Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS)

Date Written: March 11, 2016

Abstract

Electricity production from renewable sources generally displaces thermal generation, which leads to lower CO2 emissions in the power sector. However, the intermittent nature of many renewable technologies leads to greater inefficiencies in the operation of existing fossil power plants. This inefficiency translates into higher production costs as well as a higher rate of emissions relative to output. In this paper we focus on Italian power installations. Using panel econometrics, we show that a 10% increase in photovoltaics and wind infeed has reduced yearly CO2 emissions of the average thermal installation by about 4% while the average plants emissions relative to its output have increased by about 0.3% between 2005 and 2014. Given the additional inefficiency caused by intermittent renewables, our results suggest that the average installation actually only achieves around 94% of the expected reductions. The effect is more pronounced for installations that have not been retrofitted and for installations serving peak demand.

Keywords: Emission factors, load-cycling, inefficiency

JEL Classification: L94, P18, Q48, Q53

Suggested Citation

Graf, Christoph and Marcantonini, Claudio, Renewable Energy Intermittency and its Impact on Thermal Generation (March 11, 2016). EUI Working Paper RSCAS 2016/16 , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2746396

Christoph Graf (Contact Author)

Stanford University - Department of Economics ( email )

Landau Economics Building
579 Serra Mall
STANFORD, CA 94305-6072
United States

Claudio Marcantonini

European University Institute - Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS) ( email )

Villa La Fonte, via delle Fontanelle 18
50016 San Domenico di Fiesole
Florence, Florence 50014
Italy

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