Global Energy Outlook 2015

42 Pages Posted: 14 Mar 2016 Last revised: 27 Apr 2022

See all articles by Richard G. Newell

Richard G. Newell

Duke University - Nicholas School of Environment; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Resources for the Future

YIFEI QIAN

Duke University

Daniel Raimi

Duke University

Date Written: March 2016

Abstract

This paper assesses trends in the global energy sector through 2040 by harmonizing multiple projections issued by private, government, and inter-governmental organizations based on methods from “Global Energy Outlooks Comparison: Methods and Challenges” (Newell and Qian 2015). These projections agree that global energy consumption growth in the coming 25 years is likely to be substantial, with the global demand center shifting from Europe and North America to Asia, led by China and India. Most projections show energy demand growing as much or more in absolute terms to 2040 than previous multi-decade periods, although the rate of growth will be slower in percentage terms. Total consumption of fossil fuels grows under most projections, with natural gas gaining market share relative to coal and oil. The North American unconventional gas surge has expanded to tight oil more rapidly than anticipated, with implications for global oil markets that are still unfolding. Renewable electricity sources are also set to expand rapidly, while the prospects for nuclear power are more regionally varied. Global carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise under most projections and, unless additional climate policies are adopted, are more consistent with an expected rise in average global temperature of close to 3°C or more, than international goals of 2°C or less.

Suggested Citation

Newell, Richard G. and QIAN, YIFEI and Raimi, Daniel, Global Energy Outlook 2015 (March 2016). NBER Working Paper No. w22075, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2747195

Richard G. Newell (Contact Author)

Duke University - Nicholas School of Environment ( email )

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YIFEI QIAN

Duke University

Daniel Raimi

Duke University ( email )

100 Fuqua Drive
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States

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