To ‘Vape’ or Smoke? A Discrete Choice Experiment Among U.S. Adult Smokers

34 Pages Posted: 14 Mar 2016 Last revised: 1 May 2022

See all articles by Joachim Marti

Joachim Marti

Yale School of Public Health; University of Neuchatel

John Buckell

Yale University - School of Public Health

Johanna Catherine Maclean

University of Pennsylvania

Jody L. Sindelar

Yale University - School of Public Health

Date Written: March 2016

Abstract

A small but rapidly growing percentage of the U.S. population uses e-cigarettes. Policymakers, especially the FDA, are concerned about their public health impact and thus are contemplating regulations. We provide empirical evidence to inform such policy choices. Specifically, we examine how the demand for e-cigarettes would vary across policy-relevant attributes: 1) health impact, 2) effectiveness in helping smokers quit, 3) bans in public places, and 4) price. We conduct an online discrete choice experiment of 1,669 adult smokers who select among combustible cigarettes and two types of e-cigarettes as attributes are varied. Using a conditional logit model we estimate smokers’ preferences across attributes. Then, using a latent class model, we identify types of smokers and conduct policy simulations separately by these types and for the full sample. In general, smokers value the attributes in the predicted directions and the demand for e-cigarettes tends to be motivated more by smokers’ health concerns than by price or smoking bans. The latent class model identifies three types of smokers, those who prefer combustible cigarettes (‘smokers’), e-cigarettes (‘vapers’), and using both (‘dual users’). We conclude that varying these policy-relevant attributes will have small, significant impacts on average, but with substantial heterogeneity by smoker type.

Suggested Citation

Marti, Joachim and Buckell, John and Maclean, Johanna Catherine and Sindelar, Jody L., To ‘Vape’ or Smoke? A Discrete Choice Experiment Among U.S. Adult Smokers (March 2016). NBER Working Paper No. w22079, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2747199

Joachim Marti (Contact Author)

Yale School of Public Health ( email )

PO Box 208034
60 College Street
New Haven, CT 06520-8034
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.joachim-marti.com

University of Neuchatel ( email )

1, A.-L. Breguet
Neuchatel, CH-2000
Switzerland

John Buckell

Yale University - School of Public Health ( email )

PO Box 208034
60 College Street
New Haven, CT 06520-8034
United States

Johanna Catherine Maclean

University of Pennsylvania ( email )

Jody L. Sindelar

Yale University - School of Public Health ( email )

PO Box 208034
60 College Street
New Haven, CT 06520-8034
United States
203-785-5287 (Phone)
203-785-6287 (Fax)

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