Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and the Welfare Effects of Oil Price Decontrol

23 Pages Posted: 29 Jun 2004

See all articles by Paul R. Krugman

Paul R. Krugman

Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: April 1981

Abstract

Conventional analysis of the welfare effects of U.S. oil price regulation in the 1970's focuses on the deadweight losses in the oil market. This paper argues that such analysis substantially understates the benefits from decontrolling prices, because decontrol will lead to an improvement in the U.S. terms of trade with respect to other oil importing countries. A simple model of the relationship between oil decontrol and the terms of trade is developed, and the impact is calculated for plausible parameter values. The results suggest that the terms of trade benefits are several times larger than the benefits as conventionally measured.

Suggested Citation

Krugman, Paul R., Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and the Welfare Effects of Oil Price Decontrol (April 1981). NBER Working Paper No. w0658. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=275407

Paul R. Krugman (Contact Author)

Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs ( email )

Princeton University
Princeton, NJ 08544-1021
United States
609-258-4570 (Phone)
609-258-2809 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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