Macroeconomic Stability in Resource-Rich Countries: The Role of Fiscal Policy

29 Pages Posted: 28 Mar 2016

See all articles by Elva Bova

Elva Bova

Independent

Paulo A. Medas

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Tigran Poghosyan

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: February 2016

Abstract

Resource-rich countries face large and persistent shocks, especially coming from volatile commodity prices. Given the severity of the shocks, it would be expected that these countries adopt countercyclical fiscal policies to help shield the domestic economy. Taking advantage of a new dataset covering 48 non-renewable commodity exporters for the period 1970-2014, we investigate whether fiscal policy does indeed play a stabilizing role. Our analysis shows that fiscal policy tends to have a procyclical bias (mainly via expenditures) and, contrary to others, we do not find evidence that this bias has declined in recent years. Adoption of fiscal rules does not seem to reduce procyclicality in a significant way, but the quality of political institutions does matter. Finally, non-commodity revenues tend to respond only to persistent changes in commodity prices.

Keywords: resource-rich countries, procyclical fiscal policy, commodity, prices, price, fiscal policy, General, Models with Panel Data, All Countries,

JEL Classification: O13, H30, C33

Suggested Citation

Bova, Elva and Medas, Paulo A. and Poghosyan, Tigran, Macroeconomic Stability in Resource-Rich Countries: The Role of Fiscal Policy (February 2016). IMF Working Paper No. 16/36, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2754941

Elva Bova (Contact Author)

Independent ( email )

No Address Available
United States

Paulo A. Medas

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Tigran Poghosyan

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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